Breakeven Win Rate Calculator
Find the win rate required to offset your average losses.
Compare the theoretical threshold with your actual results.
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- Runs Locally
Read the result
Breakeven is a threshold, not a performance guarantee
The calculation assumes the entered average win and loss remain stable. Trading costs not included in those averages raise the real requirement.
The actual win rate is below the theoretical requirement.
The actual win rate is effectively at the theoretical threshold.
The entered averages imply a positive mathematical result before missing costs.
The actual win rate is above the theoretical threshold.
How breakeven win rate is calculated
Breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
Average loss is entered as a positive amount. The formula assumes no breakeven trades and no costs outside the entered averages.
A larger payoff lowers the required win rate
When average winners are larger than average losers, fewer winning trades are needed. The opposite is true when average winners are smaller.
Real trading data can move the threshold
Partial exits, changing position size, commissions, spread and slippage can make the realized average win and loss different from the planned values.
Move beyond one threshold
Compare breakeven requirements with actual trade history
Forgalis TradingJournal keeps trading data local and helps review real win rate, average outcomes, expectancy and setup performance.
Explore Forgalis TradingJournalBreakeven win rate FAQ
What is breakeven win rate?
It is the win rate that makes the mathematical average result equal to zero for the entered average win and average loss.
Should breakeven trades be included?
Exclude them from the win-rate calculation unless their final net result after costs makes them a winner or loser.
Does this include commissions and spread?
Only when those costs are already included in the average winning and losing trade values.
Does being above breakeven prove the strategy works?
No. Sample size, variance, drawdown, changing market conditions and execution quality still matter.