Trading Expectancy Calculator

Example: checking if the numbers actually work

Assume your win rate is 45%, your average winning trade is $250 and your average losing trade is $120.

The winning side contributes $112.50 per trade on average. The losing side subtracts $66.00 per trade on average. That leaves an expectancy of $46.50 per trade before costs.

Over 100 trades, that would equal an expected result of $4,650. This does not mean the next 100 trades will look exactly like that. It only shows what the current averages imply.

How the calculation works

Expectancy estimates the average result per trade based on win rate, average win and average loss.

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) - (loss rate × average loss)

Loss rate = 100% - win rate

Expected result = expectancy per trade × number of trades

Profit factor = gross average win contribution / gross average loss contribution

This calculator does not include commissions, spread, slippage or changing position size.

How to use expectancy in trade review

Expectancy is useful because it forces you to look beyond one trade, one win, or one bad day.

Useful review questions:

Is your average win large enough compared to your average loss?
Is your win rate high enough for your current reward profile?
Are a few large losers damaging an otherwise good sample?
Does expectancy improve when you filter by setup, market, session or mistake type?

The real value comes from tracking expectancy by category, not only for your whole account. A strategy can look weak overall while one setup is actually carrying the results.

Common questions

What is trading expectancy?

Trading expectancy is the average amount a trade is expected to make or lose based on win rate, average win and average loss. It is a review metric, not a guarantee.

Can a trader be profitable with a low win rate?

Yes. A low win rate can still work if the average win is large enough compared to the average loss. The opposite is also true: a high win rate can fail if the losing trades are too large.

Why does average loss matter so much?

Large losses can damage expectancy quickly. One oversized loss can erase many normal winners, which is why reviewing loss size is often more useful than only reviewing win rate.

How many trades do I need before expectancy means anything?

A small sample can be misleading. Expectancy becomes more useful when reviewed across a larger set of trades and when filtered by setup, market condition, instrument or session.

Related trading tools

Continue the review with these free browser-based tools:

R-Multiple Calculator
Risk Reward Calculator
Position Size Calculator
Drawdown Recovery Calculator
Daily Loss Limit Calculator

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